Will the Loss of Consumer Credit Serve as the Next Economic Aftershock to Further Fuel the Financial Crisis?

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[This is the newest installment in an ongoing news series that looks at the anticipated “aftershocks” of the global financial crisis, and the profit plays those events can trigger.]

By Jason Simpkins

And William Patalon III

Money Morning Editors

U.S. consumers are already losing their jobs at an accelerating rate.

The same thing is now set to happen to their credit lines.

But with so many Americans already losing their main source of income – their jobs – at an ever-spiraling rate, will an economy that derives two-thirds of its power from consumer spending end up mired in its worst funk in decades because those same consumers are now losing their charge accounts?

Before you dismiss the possibility, consider this: The U.S. economy weakened across all regions since the middle of October as it became tougher to get loans and demand for credit shrank, the U.S. Federal Reserve said in its regional economic survey report yesterday (Wednesday). The so-called “Beige Book” report – published just two weeks before central bank policymakers are to meet and consider interest-rate changes – said that retail sales, tourism spending and manufacturing declined in most places, labeled housing markets as “weak” and concluded that the commercial real estate sector “weakened broadly,” Bloomberg News reported.

“We are looking at an economy that is not only in a recession, but a recession that is deepening rapidly,” former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co.,

told Bloomberg Television. “It certainly is a gloomy report, but not, I guess, worse than what you would expect given the data [we’ve seen] coming in.”

The United States has already been in a recession for a year, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reported this week. This economic one-two punch could generate a much-bigger financial crisis “aftershock” than many experts realize. Only two of the last 10 recessions to take place since the Great Depression have lasted a full year. But this one could last well into 2010.

To fully understand the forces at play, let’s first look at the outlook for U.S. employment.

Weakening Worker Ranks

Non-farm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.5%, up from 6.1% the month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in early November. October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September.

That means that U.S. employment has fallen by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of the year, with more than half of that decrease occurring in August, September and October.

The government’s jobless numbers for November won’t be released until tomorrow (Friday) – although it’s expected to show that the U.S. economy lost jobs for the 11th straight month, Bloomberg News reported.

But a private report based on payroll data released Tuesday said that United States companies eliminated an estimated 250,000 jobs in November – a much larger amount than was forecast and the most since November 2001, said ADP Employer Services, a unit of payroll-processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP). That would take the total number of job losses for the year up to 1.5 million.

The ADP report prompted some analysts to boost their estimates for the job losses we’ll see in tomorrow’s Labor Department report. New predictions include a payroll decline of 400,000 from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and a drop of 450,000 from Wachovia Corp. (WB) economists. And the unemployment rate for November probably spiked to 6.8%, the highest it’s been since 1993, a Bloomberg survey of economists concluded.

With the world’s largest economy mired in its first recession since 2001, companies have accelerated their job-ranks reductions, with such sectors as banking, manufacturing and even business services taking major hits.

The NBER said Monday that the deterioration of the labor market was one of the key factors in labeling this downturn as a recession, even though we have yet to experience two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

According to a number of estimates, the U.S employment outlook – and the overall economy – is going to get much worse before it gets better. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) says the U.S. unemployment rate will spike to 9.0% by the fourth quarter of 2009, as corporate profits plunge an estimated 25% – and that’s after an estimated decline in profits of about 10% this year, Goldman says.

Indeed, the U.S. economy – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – will decline by 5.0% in the current quarter, followed by declines of 3.0% in the first quarter of 2009 and 1.0% in the second quarter, Goldman predicts.

Those numbers are worse than Goldman originally forecast, and create an outlook similar to Money Morning’s projections, which called for a credit-crisis-nurtured economic downturn that could last as long as 12-18 months.

The business-cycle dating committee of the NBER, a privately run, nonprofit economic research group, on Monday formally announced that the U.S. recession started after the economy peaked in December 2007. The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that U.S. GDP rose 0.9% in the first quarter and 2.8% in the second quarter. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%.

The loss of consumer credit lines could make matters even worse.

$2 Trillion in Credit Lines on the Chopping Block

More than $2 trillion in consumer credit could be cut in the next 18 months, as credit-card companies pull back credit lines in anticipation of credit funding problems and regulatory changes, said Meredith Whitney, an Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY) banking analyst who’s well-known for her gutsy and prescient (and ultimately correct) market calls.

Throughout the week, Whitney has warned that the entire mortgage market will contract for the first time ever in the months ahead. More importantly, however, Whitney says the credit card market will be 18 months behind, as credit-card companies pull back more than $2 trillion in credit lines, taking away consumers’ second major source of liquidity, following jobs.

“What you haven’t seen yet digested by the market is banks pulling lines from consumers,” Whitney said in an interview with CNBC. “And across the board you saw the big banks that command so much of the market share of key products like mortgages and credit cards start to pull lines in the third quarter and that’s going to continue in the fourth quarter. And that’s going to continue into 2009.”

Although some experts note that consumers reduce their spending during recessionary periods — and, needless to say, after they lose their jobs — it’s important to not confuse spending and credit. During dire times, many consumers can boost their use of credit even as they cut overall spending, using the credit cards, home-equity lines and other forms of borrowing as a lifeline to tide them over. For those consumers, a credit line cut can be disastrous personally, and can aggregate into an even-steeper downturn in spending.

Roughly 70% of U.S. households have access to credit cards, and 90% of those people use those credit cards as a cash-flow management vehicle, or revolve payments at least once a year, Whitney says.

A surprisingly small number of national companies dominate the major lending arteries – including credit lines, mortgages and credit cards – that have sustained the U.S. consumer for so long, including mortgages and credit cards. Mortgages have already hit a wall with the collapse of the U.S. housing market and wave of subprime defaults. But credit cards could be next as companies raise interest rates, tighten lending standards, cut credit lines, and even close millions of accounts in an effort to insulate themselves from consumer defaults.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) – which controlled more than half of U.S. credit-card lines at the end of the third quarter – have all discussed reducing their credit-card exposure or scaling back growth, according to Whitney.

“You’re going to start to see the consumer get really strained on their credit card lines,” said Whitney. “People think the next shoe to drop is the credit card credit costs – the charges going up. No, it’s the credit card lines being pulled by bank lenders in anticipation of worsening credit funding problems, and then regulatory changes on the horizon.”

Whitney expects the credit-card market to begin to shrink by mid-2010, a time when the unemployment rate could be as high as 9.0%.

“Just when the consumer is losing their job that’s their first source of cash, their first source of liquidity, then they lose their second big source of liquidity, which is their credit card line,” she said.

Indeed, as unemployment rises, so too will credit-card delinquencies. David W. Nelms, chief executive of Discover Financial Services (DFS), told Reuters that card write-offs could be in the mid-5% range in the fourth quarter and near 6% in the first quarter of 2009.

Delinquencies “will tend to track with unemployment,” Nelms told Reuters after a speech to the Executives Club of Chicago. “Most agree that things will tend to get worse next year.”

Lenders, still reeling from losses tied to subprime mortgages, can’t afford another round of defaults on credit cards. So they’ve begun pulling lines of credit, leaving the consumer out in the cold. And it’s only going to get worse, Whitney says.

Crisis Expert Sees Change in Consumer Psychology

Investment expert R. Shah Gilani – a retired hedge fund manager who’s been chronicling the credit crisis as a Money Morning contributing editor – isn’t surprised by Whitney’s predictions.

“This is already happening in a big way,” Gilani said referring to Whitney’s assertion that credit lines have been put in jeopardy. “I have already talked to people who have had their credit lines reduced, even cut in half. So I wouldn’t be surprised if $2 trillion turns out to be an accurate figure.”

And according to Gilani, the evaporation of $2 trillion in credit could be the death knell for the American consumer.

“A number that high makes you gasp, just considering the quantitative effect on consumer spending,” Gilani said. “There’s a strong chance that the American consumer is not just down on the canvas, but has been knocked out of the ring.”

American consumers cut spending by 1% in October, the biggest drop since the last recession in 2001, the government said last week.

U.S. retail sales plunged 2.8% in October – the largest monthly drop since the Commerce Department began tallying monthly retail sales in 1992. The sales drop marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the first retrenchment since 1992. And few have any hope left for the Christmas season as consumer confidence is also waning. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index clocked in an ultra-low 55.3 for November, down from 57.6 the month before.

The reading fell well short of the projected 57.7, Reuters said, and – even worse – had deteriorated since the middle of the month, even though lower gasoline prices were seen as a bright spot for consumers. The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Its record low was 51.7, which it hit in May 1980.

Once again, jobs, liquidity and confidence were the key issues, the survey report said.

“Consumer confidence fell in the last half of November due to mounting job losses, falling incomes and the evaporation of household wealth,” the report said. “Consumers were unanimous in their recognition that the economy was in recession, and nearly three-in-four expected the recession to deepen in the months ahead.”

However, Gilani, who is also editor of the Trigger Event Strategist – a trading service specifically designed to help investors maneuver through this economic malaise – also believes that what investors are witnessing is yet another “aftershock” of the ongoing global financial crisis.

“What is actually taking place is a shift in consumer psychology that has been driven by factors such as the socioeconomic climate – as well as the environment – and that’s now being compounded by credit conditions,” Gilani said. “This is about banks and credit companies de-leveraging and forcing the American consumer to do the same.”

The trouble is, he said, this can become a cycle that’s hard to stop once it takes hold.

“Whether Americans have lost confidence in the market or simply can’t afford to repay loans, money flows have simply dried up” Gilani said. “So banks have been forced to raise their lending standards to a point that many Americans are now unable to meet. It becomes a vicious cycle.”

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Finance, Credit, Investments-modern Interpretation

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lamara qoqiauri asked:


Finance, Credit, Investments – Economical Categories. Modern Interpretation

 

Scientific works in the theories of finances and credit, according to the specification of the research object, are characterized to be many-sided and many-leveled.

The definition of totality of the economical relations formed in the process of formation, distribution and usage of finances, as money sources is widely spread. For example, in “the general theory of finances” there are two definitions of finances:

1)            “…Finances reflect economical relations, formation of the funds of money sources, in the process of distribution and redistribution of national receipts according to the distribution and usage”. This definition is given relatively to the conditions of Capitalism, when cash-commodity relations gain universal character;

2)            “Finances represent the formation of centralized ad decentralized money sources, economical relations relatively with the distribution and usage, which serve for fulfillment of the state functions and obligations and also provision of the conditions of the widened further production”. This definition is brought without showing the environment of its action. We share partly such explanation of finances and think expedient to make some specification.

First, finances overcome the bounds of distribution and redistribution service of the national income, though it is a basic foundation of finances. Also, formation and usage of the depreciation fund which is the part of financial domain, belongs not to the distribution and redistribution of the national income (of newly formed value during a year), but to the distribution of already developed value.

This latest first appears to be a part of value of main industrial funds, later it is moved to the cost price of a ready product (that is to the value too) and after its realization, and it is set the depression fund. Its source is taken into account before hand as a depression kind in the consistence of the ready products cost price.

Second, main goal of finances is much wider then “fulfillment of the state functions and obligations and provision of conditions for the widened further production”. Finances exist on the state level and also on the manufactures and branches’ level too, and in such conditions, when the most part of the manufactures are not state.

V. M. Rodionova has a different position about this subject: “real formation of the financial resources begins on the stage of distribution, when the value is realized and concrete economical forms of the realized value are separated from the consistence of the profit”. V. M. Rodionova makes an accent of finances, as distributing relations, when D. S. Moliakov underlines industrial foundation of finances. Though both of them give quite substantiate discussion of finances, as a system of formation, distribution and usage of the funds of money sources, that comes out of the following definition of the finances: “financial cash relations, which forms in the process of distribution and redistribution of the partial value of the national wealth and total social product, is related with the subjects of the economy and formation and usage of the state cash incomes and savings in the widened further production, in the material stimulation of the workers for satisfaction of the society social and other requests”.

In the manuals of the political economy we meet with the following definitions of finances:

“Finances of the socialistic state represent economical (cash) relations, with the help of which, in the way of planned distribution of the incomes and savings the funds of money sources of the state and socialistic manufactures are formed for guaranteeing the growth of the production, rising the material and cultural level of the people and for satisfying other general society requests”.

“The system of creation and usage of necessary funds of cash resources for guarantying socialistic widened further production represent exactly the finances of the socialistic society. And the totality of economical relations arisen between state, manufactures and organizations, branches, regions and separate citizen according to the movement of cash funds make financial relations”.

As we’ve seen, definitions of finances made by financiers and political economists do not differ greatly.

In every discussed position there are:

1)      expression of essence and phenomenon in the definition of finances;

2)      the definition of finances, as the system of the creation and usage of funds of cash sources on the level of phenomenon.

3)      Distribution of finances as social product and the value of national income, definition of the distributions planned character, main goals of the economy and economical relations, for servicing of which it is used.

If refuse the preposition “socialistic” in the definition of finances, we may say, that it still keeps actuality. We meet with such traditional definitions of finances, without an adjective “socialistic”, in the modern economical literature. We may give such an elucidation: “finances represent cash resources of production and usage, also cash relations appeared in the process of distributing values of formed economical product and national wealth for formation and further production of the cash incomes and savings of the economical subjects and state, rewarding of the workers and satisfaction of the social requests”.  in this elucidation of finances like D. S. Moliakov and V. M. Rodionov’s definitions, following the traditional inheritance, we meet with the widening of the financial foundation. They concern “distribution and redistribution of the value of created economical product, also the partial distribution of the value of national wealth”. This latest is very actual, relatively to the process of privatization and the transition to privacy and is periodically used in practice in different countries, for example, Great Britain and France.

“Finances – are cash sources, financial resources, their creation and movement, distribution and redistribution, usage, also economical relations, which are conditioned by intercalculations between the economical subjects, movement of cash sources, money circulation and usage”.

“Finances are the system of economical relations, which are connected with firm creation, distribution and usage of financial resources”.We meet with absolutely innovational definitions of finances in Z. Body and R. Merton’s basis manuals. “Finance – it is the science about how the people lead spending `the deficit cash resources and incomes in the definite period of time. The financial decisions are characterized by the expenses and incomes which are 1) separated in time, and 2) as a rule, it is impossible to take them into account beforehand neither by those who get decisions nor any other person”. “Financial theory consists of numbers of the conceptions… which learns systematically the subjects of distribution of the cash resources relatively to the time factor; it also considers quantitative models, with the help of which the estimation, putting into practice and realization of the alternative variants of every financial decisions take place”.

These basic conceptions and quantitative models are used at every level of getting financial decisions, but in the latest definition of finances, we meet with the following doctrine of the financial foundation: main function of the finances is in the satisfaction of the people’s requests; the subjects of economical activities of any kind (firms, also state organs of every level) are directed towards fulfilling this basic function.

For the goals of our monograph, it is important to compare well-known definitions about finances, credit and investment, to decide how and how much it is possible to integrate the finances, investments and credit into the one total part.

Some researcher thing that credit is the consisting part of finances, if it is discussed from the position of essence and category. The other, more numerous group proves, that an economical category of credit exists parallel to the economical category of finances, by which it underlines impossibility of the credit’s existence in the consistence of finances.

N. K. Kuchukova underlined the independence of the category of credit and notes that it is only its “characteristic feature the turned movement of the value, which is not related with transmission of the loan opportunities together with the owners’ rights”.

N. D. Barkovski replies that functioning of money created an economical basis for apportioning finances and credit as an independent category and gave rise to the credit and financial relations. He noticed the Gnoseological roots of science in money and credit, as the science about finances has business with the research of such economical relations, which lean upon cash flow and credit.

Let’s discuss the most spread definitions of credit. in the modern publications credit appeared to be “luckier”, then finances. For example, we meet with the following definition of credit in the finance-economical dictionary: “credit is the loan in the form of cash and commodity with the conditions of returning, usually, by paying percent. Credit represents a form of movement of the loan capital and expresses economical relations between the creditor and borrower”.

This is the traditional definition of credit. In the earlier dictionary of the economy we read: “credit is the system of economical relations, which is formed while the transmission of cash and material means into the temporal usage, as a rule under the conditions of returning and paying percent”.

In the manual of the political economy published under reduction of V. A. Medvedev the following definition is given: “credit, as an economical category, expresses the created relations between the society, labour collective and workers during formation and usage of the loan funds, under the terms of paying present and returning, during transmission of sources for the temporal usage and accumulation”.Credit is discussed in the following way in the earlier education-methodological manuals of political economy: “credit is the system of money relations, which is created in the process of using and mobilization of temporarily free cash means of the state budget, unions, manufactures, organizations and population. Credit has an objective character. It is used for providing widened further production of the state and other needs. Credit differs from finances by the returning character, while financing of manufactures and organizations by the state is fulfilled without this condition”.

We meet with the following definition if “the course of economy”: “credit is an economical category, which represents relations, while the separate industrial organizations or persons transmit money means to each-other for temporal usage under the conditions of returning. Creation of credit is conditioned by a historical process of fulfilling the economical and money relations, the form of which is the money relation”.

Following scientists give slightly different definitions of credit:

“Credit – is a loan in the form of money or commodity, which is given to the borrower by a creditor under the conditions of returning and paying the percentage rate by the borrower”.

Credit is giving the temporally free money sources or commodity as a debt for the defined terms by the price of fixed percentage. Thus, a credit is the loan in the form of money or commodity. In the process of this loan’s movement, a definite relations are formed between a creditor (the loan is given by a juridical of physical person, who gives certain cash as a debt) and the debtor.

Combining every definition named above, we come to an idea, that credit is giving money capital of commodity as a debt, for certain terms and material provision under the price of firm percentage rate. It expresses definite economical relations between the participants of the process of capital formation. Necessity of the credit relations is conditioned, from one side, by gathering solid quantity of temporarily free money sources, and from the second side, existence of requests of them.

Though, at the same time we must distinguish two resembling concepts: loan and credit. Loan is characterized by:

·         Here, the discussion may touch upon transmission of money and also things form one side (loaner) to another (borrower): a)under the owning of the borrower and, at the same time, b) under the conditions of returning same amount or same quantity and quality of the things;

·         The loaning of money may bear no interest;

·         Any person may take part in it.

With the difference with loan, credit, which is somehow a private occasion of the loan, represents:

·         One side (loaner) gives to the second one (borrower) only money, and _ for temporal usage;

·         It may not bear no interest (if the assignment doesn’t foresee something);

·         In it creditor is not any person, but a credit organization (at the first place, banks).

So, a credit is the bank credit. To our mind, it is not correct to use “credit” and “loan” as the synonyms.

Banking crediting is the union of relations between bank (as a creditor) and its borrower. These relations touch upon:

a)      Giving a certain amount of money to the borrower for definite purpose (though, we meet with the so-called free credits, aims and objects of crediting are not appointed in the assignment);

b)      Its opportune returning;

c)      Getting percentage rate from the borrower for using the sources under his/her disposal.

The essential foundation of the credit essence and its important element is existence of trust between the two sides (in Latin “credo”, from which comes the word “credit”, means “trust”).

From the position of circulation of money forms (in the abstraction, historical process of formation economical relations and social budget and banking systems expressed by them) comparing different definitions of finances and credit, the paradox conclusion appears: credit is the private occasion of finances. And truly, from the position of movement of the money forms, finances represent the process of formation and usage of the funds of cash means. Very often such movements are fulfilled without returning, but sometimes, it is possible to give loans from the budget for the investment projects of other needs. Also, when a manufacture or corporations use their cash funds and we mean the finances of industrial subject, such usage may be realized as inside the manufacture or corporation (there is no subject about returning or not returning of the usage), so gratis under conditions of returning. This latest is called commercial form because of transmitting the sources to others, but even in this occasion, it is the element of financial system of the manufacture and corporation.

From the point of cash means movement, main character of credit is the process of formation and usage of the funds of cash means under the conditions of returning and, as a rule, taking the value-percentage. If gating the credit value doesn’t take place (even in the exceptional occasions), according to the movement form, credit becomes a private occasion of finances, as from the net financial funds (consequently from the state budget) the loans which bear no interests may be used. If gating credit value takes place, by the appearance form, credit is discussed to be financial modification.

From the historical point of view, finances (especially in the sort of the state budget) and credit (beginning with usury, later commercial and banking) were developing differently for considering credit to be the part of finances. Though, from the genetic-historical point of view, previous loaners, before giving loan, needed gathering the permanent capital not returning, that is the net financial foundation. The banks analogously needed concentration of the important own capital for influxing the consumers’ means and for getting higher percentage rate under the conditions of returning. Herewith, exactly on the financial basis, in the sort of financial fund (which later partially becomes loan fund) part of the bank capital appears to be the reservation (insurance) part of the fund, which by nature is financial and not loan. So notwithstanding the essential distinctions between finances and credit form the genetic-historical point of view, credit appears to be formed from finances and represent their modification.

From the essential position of expressing economical relations of finances and credit, we meet with cardinal distinctions between these two categories. Which mostly expressed by the distinction of the movement forms notwithstanding they are returnable or not. Finances express relations in the aspects of distribution and redistribution of social product and part of the national wealth. Credit expresses distribution of the appropriate value only in the section of percentage given for loan, while according to the loan itself, a only a temporal distribution of money sources takes place.

Herewith, there is a lot of common between the finances and credit as from the essential point of view, so according to the form of movement. At the same time, there is a significant distinction between finances and credit as in the essence, so in the form too. According to this, there must be a kind of generally economical category, which will consider finances and credit as a total unity, and in the bounds of this category itself, the separation of the specific essence of the finances and credit would take place.

Funding of the cash means is common to the researched economical categories. It takes place in any separate system of finances and credit, which have been touched upon during the analyses of defining finances and credit. Word combination “funding of the cash sources (fund formation)” reflects and defines exactly essence and form of economical category of more general character, those of finances and credit categories. Though in the in economical texts and practice, it is very uncomfortable to use a termini, which consists of three words. Also, “unloading” with an information hardens greatly its influxing into the circulation even in the conditions of its strict substantiation and thoroughness.

In the discussing context we consider:

1)      wide and narrow understanding of economical category of the finances;

2)      discussing finances in narrow understanding under general traditional meaning;

3)      discussing finances, as funding of the cash means, in wide understanding, which concerns finances – in narrow meaning and credit – in complete meaning.

Termini “funding” and its equivalent “fund formation” are used by us as the purposeful structuring of cash means, which is based on two poles – accumulation of money sources (gathering) and its usage for definite purpose in the way of financing and crediting.

We have established a new termini – “finance-investment sphere” (FIS). Analyses about interrelation of finances and credit made by us give us an opportunity of proving, that in the given termini, the word “financial” is used with the meaning of funding cash sources, its purposeful structuring. In this process we consider at the same time financial, credit and investments’ economical categories.

Let’s sum up middle results of discussing new concept – “finance-investment sphere” and discuss its investment consisting parts.

The concept “investments” was brought into the native economical science from the West. In the Soviet economical science they for a long time used in the place “investments” the termini “capital placement”, which expressed the usage of the industrial factors in the sphere of real industrial activities during realization of capital projects. From one glance, this termini in its concept is identical to the “investments”, consequently it is possible to use them as synonyms. Though the termini “investments” and “investing” have the advantage towards the termini “capital placement” from linguistic and philological points of view, because they are expressed with one word. This is not only economical and comfortable in the process of working with the termini “investment” itself, but also it gives an opportunity of termini formation. More concretely: “investment process”, “investment domain”, “finance-investment sphere” – all these termini are much more acceptable.

Changing native economical termini with foreign ones is purposeful, if it really matters (by keeping parallel usage of the native termini for the inheritance). Though we must not change native economical termini into foreign ones all together, when by ordinal traditional language easy to explain private and narrow concrete processes and elements get their own termini. The “movement” of these termini is approved in the narrow professional bounds, but their “spitting out” into the economical science may turn economical language into the tangled slang.

Let’s discuss termini – “investment” and “capital placement’s” usage in the economical literature.

Investments are placement of funds into the main and circulation capital for the purpose of getting profit. “Investments in material assets – are the placements of funds into the mobile and real estate (land, buildings, furniture and so on). Investments in financial assets are the placements of funds into the securities bank accounts and other financial instruments”.

We don’t meet with the termini “investments” in the earlier economical dictionary, but we meet the combined termini “investment policy” – the union of the industrial decisions, which guarantee main directions of the capital investments, the activities of their concentration in the determinant suburbs, on which the reaching of planned rates of development of the society production is depended, balancing and effectiveness, getting more and more production and profit of the national income for every lost Ruble”. For today, in the most actual definitions, the capital investments are bounded only by financial means, when not only financial, but also the investment of natural, material-technical and informational resources takes place. Labour resources take an actual place in the investment process. They themselves fulfill this or that investment process.

A positive side of the discussed definitions is that they connect investment policy and capital placements (investments):

-          economical development according to the key directions to the concentration;

-          providing high rates of economical growth;

-          raising an economical effectiveness, which is expressed:

a)      by growing the throw off of the production and national income for every lost Ruble;

b)      by fulfilling the branch structure of the investments;

c)      by improving their technological structure;

d)     by optimization of their further production structure.

Compared with such definition of the investments (capital placement) the definition of investments in the dictionary attaching the “Economics” seems to be unimproved: “investments  – the expenses of gathering production and industrial means and increasing material reserve”. In this definition current expenses (production expenses) are mixed with the investment (capital) expense. Also, not the investment expenses but (though the investments are followed by the appropriate expenses) exactly advancing. It differs from the expenses by that the means (means) are put by returning the advanced values, also, under the conditions of growth, to which the concept-advanced capital is corresponding. the advancing may be realized in the money, natural-material and informational forms.

Except the termini “investments”, there are two more termini related with the investment. They are shown below.

 “Human capital investment” – any activity provided for rising the workers labour productivity (in the way of growing their qualification and developing their abilities); at the expenses of improving the workers’ education, health and raising the mobility of the working forces”. It is very useful to use the mentioned termini, though it needs one correction: the human capital investments do not concern only workers, but also the servants, representatives of every kind of labour.

“Investment commodity, capital goods – a capital.”

In the official manuals of political economy of the reformation time the capital investments are discussed as “expenses for creating new main funds and widening, reconstruction and renewing the active ones”. In this definition the investments (capital placements) during separation of the forms (types) of further production of the main funds are bounded only by main funds (without increases of the circulation funds and insurance reserves): a) creating new ones; b) widening; c) reconstruction; d) renewing. Also, the concept of the industrial gathering appears, at the expenses of widening of basic, circulation funds and also insurance reserves takes place”.

You’ll meet below the definitions of investments from “the course of economy”: the investments are called “placements of fund into the basic capital (basic means of production), reserves, also other economical objects and processes, which request long-termed influxing of material and cash means. “According to the division of capital into physical and money forms, the investments too must be divided into material and cash investments”.

They apportion investment commodity, to which belong industrial and nonindustrial building objects, vehicles purposed for changing or widened technical park and the furniture, increasing reserves and others.

“They call the total investments of production an investment product, which is directed towards keeping and increasing the basic capital (basic means) and reserve. Total investments consist of two parts. One of them is called the depreciation; it represents important investment resources for compensation of renewal till the level of before industrial usage, wearing out and repairing of the basic means. Second consisting part of the total investments is represented by net investments – capital investments for the purpose of increasing basic means”. Depreciation is not a compensation resource of wearing the basic funds out, but it is the purposeful financial source of such resources.

Human capital investment is “a specific kind of investments, mostly in education and health protection”.

“Real investments are the investments in the economical branches and also, they are kinds of economical activities, which provide influxing the increases of real capital, that is increasing material values of the industrial means”. We can agree with such definition with one specification that material and nonmaterial values too belong to the real capital (wealth), consequently science-researching experimental-construction results, various information, education of he workers and others. Such service as organization of the excitable games, also the service of redistribution social wealth from one private person to another (except charity).

“Financial investments represent placement of funds into the shares, obligations, promissory notes, other securities and instruments. Such investments, of course, do not give increases of the real material capital, but they help getting profit, consequently at the expenses of changing the course of the securities in the time of speculation, or distinguishing the course in different places of sell and purchasing”. We share wholly such definition, hence it follows that financial investments (if it is not followed by real investments as a result) do not increase real material wealth and real nonmaterial wealth. According to this context, the expression below is very important: “we must distinguish financial investments, which represent placement of the funds in the ways of selling and purchasing the securities for the purpose of getting profit and financial investments, which become cash and real, moved to real physical capital.”

In the “economical course” quoted before long and short-termed investments are separated. Recognizing the existence of the bounds between them, the authors ascribe short-termed investments to “one month or more” investments. If we get such conditioned criteria, that we can call the investments which overcome the terms of some months, long-termed ones, which is very doubtful and we don’t agree with it. A long-termed character of the fund placement is a significant feature of the investments (short-term doesn’t combine with the concept of investments). Principally, it would be better to point out quick compensative, middle termed compensative and long-termed compensative investments:

-          less then 6 months – quick compensative;

-          from 6 months up to the year and a half – middle termed compensative;

-          more then the year and a half – long termed compensative.

We stopped at the definition of the investments in the capital work “economical course” for the special purpose, as, in it the author tried to discuss the concept of investments systemically and quite completely, herewith the book is published just now.

We’ll return to the discussion the definition economical category of “investments” in different publications in the following chapter. The definitions given here are quite enough for having a notion of the level of lighting up the given category in the economical literature.

What conclusions may be made according the definition of the mentioned economical category in the published works, except the made notions and specifications?

There is quite deeply, concretely and thoroughly defined the concept of “investments”, different definitions in the economical literature; but mostly in every works about the investments discussed by us until now, there is not opened the essence of investments as an economical category. In every monograph, even if it has a title investment, as an economical category, there is given only the definition, concept of investments. But, as the Academician Vasil Chantladze explains, “a concept is a discussion, which proves something about the distinguishing feature of the researched object. A concept out of much essential characteristic features represents only one, and essential in it is only – definition”.

But the categories are much wider; it is “a key, the most fundamental concept of every science”. Economical categories theoretically represent real, objectively existed productive relations. A category is the defining of occasions of existed characters, connections, relations of the objective world. Generally, any educational process is fulfilled by the categories, which give opportunities for dividing the processes and occasions semantically, for expressing the definitions of a subject and realize their specific peculiarities and economical relations of a material world.

Our goal is exactly to substantiate investments – as an economical category and also, as a financial category in the narrow understanding.

Here we apply for another manual thesis made by the academician Vasil Chantladze: “every financial relation is an economical one and every financial category is and economical one, but not every economical relation and economical category is financial relation and financial category”.

In the process of defining the investments, it is important to take in mind the sides of resources, expenses and incomes, because investment, from one side, is the result of the manufacture’s activity, and, from another one, – a part of income, which, in this case, is not used for usage.

Another occasion: it is advisable to discuss investments in two aspects: as a category of reserve and flow, which will reflect exactly the connection between “placement of funds” and “investments”.

As we’ve mentioned above, not long ago, in the well-known Soviet literature the concepts of “the placement of funds” and “investments” were accepted to be the synonyms and concerned to be investment of sources for further production of the main funds and formation of the turnover funds. We meet with such understanding of the concept of “investment” (here, they separate three types of the investment expenses: investments in the basic capital of investments, investments in the house building and investments in the reserves) in the modern economical publications and it is mostly used on the macro level during a statistical analyze of economical processes. In this concrete occasion investment is the category of reserve.

According to the aspect of flow the investments may be discussed in the process of analyzing industrial activity, when it is necessary to learn the variety of the economical relations related with the investments’ further production and formation, sources, objects and subjects, that is on the micro level.

Main distinguishing criteria of different methods of approach towards the concept of “investment” the aspect of prolonging of measuring this showing. Is it possible or not to measure the investment showing separate from the term factor (the norm of gathering, the volume of capital property, the reserves of production and so on). If it is possible, then it is the category of reserve, and if it is not, then it is measured in the section of time and belongs to the category of flow.

Thus, investment, as an economical category, is quite consuming concept. It concerns the elements defining the regularities of function and regulation of the investment domain, privately:

First, resources and values put into the industrial activity. Here, investments may be realized in the following ways:

1.      mobile and real estates (buildings, constructions, furniture and other material values);

2.      cash sources, purposeful bank accounts, credits, shares and other long-termed securities;

3.      owners rights according to the author’s rights, licenses, Now-How, experience and other intellectual values;

4.      the rights for using land and other natural resources, also other owners rights.

Notwithstanding any forms, investments are results of capital gathering. Leading investments – regularity of gathering defines its volume and dynamics and, generally, whole investment activity.

Second, the incomes ruling volume and dynamics of the resource investment. Herewith, we must underline the circumstance, that the process of getting profit, the regularity of its creation, isn’t a constant of the concept “investment”. The factors of production (also the conditions of exploitation of capital values) and selling (market conjuncture), also the process of capital gathering is the leading and important condition only for the investment formation. Though, we underline again, that the process of getting and distributing the income is a significant component of the investment activity.

The transformation of investments makes the basis for the investment activity, which concern the following circles: resources – investment (expense) – capital property – income. The practice of realization such circles of the investments transformation is exactly the investment activity (investing). The investment activity, except the investments itself, concern motivation and stimulation of the capital gathering, relations of capital gathering and ruling, also, totality of the defined level of profitability on the capital and the goals of capital growth.

According to the mentioned above, in the definitions of the investment as economical category sometimes the needed exactness and clearness is not felt, some categories of the wealth are represented tightly enough. For example, real prosperity is bounded only by material estimation. This leads us to the unvalued investment resources in the era of transformation industrial society into the investment one; also to the recognition of yet uninvolved valuable scientific researches in the production, securities turned into speculation objects, and unreal property in the consistence of one and the same parts; to there equalization. On the basis of the made analyses, we can cite a wide definition of the investments together with the leading categories.

Investment resources – are values, invested into this or that project in this or that kind for the purpose of getting profit beginning with material ones, finished with cash.

Kinds of the prosperity are equal to the kinds of the investment resources and is divided into real and cash, consequently into financial resources.

Real investment resources concern all kinds:

-          natural resources;

-          labour resources;

-          material resources, the usage of which is possible in the economical development (buildings, constructions, vehicles and furniture, transport and communication means and so on;

-          investment resources (in the widest understanding, that is from scientific-research and experimental-construction works, till the education potential of the society and till all kinds of gathering useful information, written about every possible, that is typing and electronic bearer).

Cash, consequently financial resources concern every cash means for usage in this way in definite conditions or directed in the sort of investments.

Cash means (resources) turn into the financial resources in the case of structuring of funds of purposeful destination foreseen for investments of this or that kind.

After defining investment resources we can make wide definition of the investments as economical category.

Investments – are the placements of real, financial and intellectual resources into the projects, the fulfillment of which leads us to getting the increases from real wealth, in the material and informational forms. It is followed by a cash (financial) prosperity or its increases (at the expenses of the distribution of the cash means).

As an economical category, investments express economical relations, which are created in the ways of using and formation of the investment resources between the participants of the investment process for the purpose of improving and widening of the enterprise.